I. Download the dataset GAS_Future_2021_Oct15.csv from the course website, which con- tains the gas future prices on Oct 15, 2021. Conduct the following analysis parallel to what we did in class for gas future in Lect 9 and 10.
- Perform polynomial LS regression with degree = 3, 6, 9, and 12 on the future prices. Plot the scatterplot of future prices and superimpose the curves of fitted models.(cf. Lecture 9 P.9)
- Determine the degree p via ANOVA and R2. Justify your choice.(cf. Lecture 9 P.10-11)
- Use the selected model to predict the next 6 future prices and comment.(cf. Lecture 9 P.12)
- Fit natural splines with df = 5, 8, 15 on the future prices. Plot the scatterplot of future prices and superimpose the curves of fitted models. (cf. Lecture 10 P.15)
- Compare the fit of polynomial regression with degree = 9 and natural splines with df = 8 in terms of both fit and forecast. (cf. Lecture 10 P.16-17)
